Third Gulf War?

The Middle East, throughout time, has been a place of attention. That starting place of 3 Major World Religions, the site of all of the worlds crusades, a key point in the connection between Europe and the Far East, a vital trade route, and more recently, a hotbed of terrorism, war, religious extremism, and quite inconveniently, the place with the worlds largest oil reserves. Regional conflicts in the region since WW2 aren't uncommon, the various wars with Israel and her neighbours, the Iran-Iraq war, the First and second gulf wars, and the various revolutions. And now, we could be geared up for another one, involving two of the regions most controversial states, Iran and Israel.

Now, I'm generally wary of speculative reports of anything based on trends, but the G-8 and even Israel themselves admit a war between Israel and Iran is likely. With this in mind, I think it's a fair assumption to say Israel is going to attack Iran on the basis of it's nuclear weapons program. Now, there are two basic strategies here, long term and short term:

Long term: Provoke Iran and get Saudi Arabia dragged in, which will get the US dragged in. If an invasion of Iran by land occurs, then it will become long-term, and the US and its allies can destroy any Iranian nuclear stations.

Short term: Israel bombs any station it can get at, which will mostly be in the West and South. This will destroy some bases and impede some progress but will in the big picture do little damage. 

Long term is for the US an unrealistic option. They are already footing the bill for two wars and are trying to recover negative domestic and international opinion for it's "imperialist" policies. As well as that it's military is stretched as it stands. However, in the short term, little will be done besides impede their progress, but it will send the right message to Iran, and other rogue nations such as North Korea, that a response will be given if you try and develop nuclear weapons. Of course, the alternative is Iran gets international sympathy from an entrenched Pro-Palestine European Left, and speeds up it's nuclear program.

What Iran will do domestically in response to such attacks is another question. The attacks could spark nation wide protests from an already angered pro-democracy Iranians, but despite what the West thinks, Ahmadinejad is popular in Iran, as he appeals to the religious, conservative right through his hardline Anti-America international policy, but its also popular through his social programs. Any attack will let Ahmadinejad claim the West is attacking poor 'ol Iran, and will enable him to bring any undecided, on the bench moderates to his side in a patriotic appeal for unity to fight aggression.


Of course, all of the above depends on how the war goes down. A fairly accurate simulation by the New York Times can be found here, but it all depends on if each step is successful. However, my theory on a potential war is as follows:

• Like the article, I believe Israel will attack by bombing Iranian facilities by flying low, but whether or not they will use Saudi Arabia is debatable. While Iraq would be a much more realistic and safer option, the US would not allow Israel to land there without prior notice. Thus, a discreet fly-over and possible landing in the Saudi desert is likely.
•  The US will freak out obviously, but like the article, the US will step in to stop the situation from resulting in an all-out Middle Eastern war.It will use the fact there are hundreds of thousands of US and pro-US troops East and West of the Iranian border, and they might be compelled to, y'know, step over the border and start shooting things up. Meanwhile, the fact that Israel gets a huge amount of aid from the US means the US can basically tell them without any military force to stop their attacks unless the US gives the green light first.
• Mahmoud, however, will be very angry, and the ayatollahs will begin pressuring the government to respond to the Zionist threat of Israel. They also dislike the Saudis. Iran will see that 1) Israel used Saudi Arabia to attack, and 2) Will think the US had a hand in these attacks, and will see an attack on the Saudi oil refineries as effective as an attack on the US itself. 
• Iran also begins to pander to the international community as a victim of aggression. While China and Russia won't budge, this will mean the European Left will be up in arms with heir usual anti-US, anti-globalism and anti-Israel dogma. European opinion will therefore be split. 
• Iran gets Hezbollah and Hamas to begin attacks on Israel. Meanwhile, Iran will attack Saudi oil refineries.
• Israel responds aggressively, as usual, to Hamas and Hezbollah, and in the process begin to move in on Palestine, which will anger the European left even more. Israel will again become a temporary battleground, but Israel will have a no-holds barred attitude. Thousands upon thousands of Israel troops move out against their neighbours. 
• Meanwhile ,the Saudis panic and turn to the US for help. The US can't sit back while the Saudis are assaulted, but they can't barge into Iran. The US will probably decide on an immediate embargo on Iran, while attempting to control increased levels of insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. 
• The Saudis begin to counter-attack against Iran, while seeking American aid all the way through. The Saudis, more than likely,will bomb Iranian oil facilities in the gulf. The back and forth sends oil prices sky-high
• Israel get the situation more less under control, and the US begins to rally nations such as Russia and China to help with an armistice.
• Saudi Arabia and Iran stop fighting in return for an armistice. Religious conflicts in both countries still remain, and protests in both nations are still widespread. 
• The US reinforces troops in the Gulf region and declares itself the saviour of the day. 

 And that's my take on the probable outcome. The war will be short term and will mainly comprise of back and forths between the nations involved, as well as increased insurgency. The end result of all this will be a further divide between pro-US (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Israel) and anti-US nations (Iran, Palestine) and increased insurgencies. The US will probable have to reinforce their positions in the gulf and may leave troops in Saudi Arabia, like they did following the First Gulf War. Oil prices will temporarily shoot up, and the US will re-inforce the need to get off foreign oil. It will also push  European politics further towards a pro-palestine stance. Overall, an Israeli strike on Iran will have it's positives and negatives. But mostly negatives in the form of oil prices, deaths, increased terrorism and lenghtened US stays in Iraq and Afghanistan, but it will show the world a response will be made to the creation of nuclear sites.